初始场的同化对短期气候预测的影响     

官元红  周广庆  陆维松 《南京气象学院学报》2011,(4):331-340

基于已建立的三维变分资料同化系统(3D-VAR),利用大气环流模式(IAP9L2°×2.5°-AGCM),对同化和未同化2种初始场分别进行了17a(1988—2004年)的集合回报试验,并对试验结果进行了相关分析.结果表明:在热带地区,2组初始场下的集合回报结果差别很小,除热带外的中高纬地区差别较大,尤其是东亚地区;另外,大部分物理量场的17a异常空间相关系数的均值在同化后的初始场下也得到了提高,可能是因为同化的初始场包含了一段时间的大气信息,动力模式更加协调.  相似文献   

A Method of Initial Vortex Relocation and Numerical Simulation Experiments on Tropical Cyclone Track   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

袁金南  宋丽莉  黄燕燕  陈子通  刘春霞  丁伟钰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2011,17(1):36-42

Using the technique of smooth filtering and cylindrical filtering, the initial vortex circulation and large-scale environmental field were separated from the background field. Then the separated initial vortex circulation was translated and reinserted in the location where it was observed. This led to the determination of a method of initial vortex relocation. For seven tropical cyclones at 23 points of measurement time in the years of 2006 and 2007, two schemes, either directly adding a tropical cyclone bogus model in the background or adding it after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field, were employed. Simulation experiments were compared. The results showed that the mean errors of the simulated tropical cyclone tracks at 24 and 48 hours were both smaller with the scheme of adding tropical cyclone bogus model after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field. The relocation method of the initial vortex decreases the error caused by the deviation of the initial tropical cyclone location in tropical cyclone models. The relocation method is conducive to improving the track forecast of tropical cyclone models and has a good perspective for operational application.  相似文献   

Analysis of the Trends of Thunderstorms in 1951–2007 in Jiangsu Province   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

魏建苏  刘梅  张备  俞剑蔚 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2011,17(1):58-63

Based on the 1951–2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu, a study is conducted for their climate trends, periodicity, spatiotemporal patterns, and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guarantee rates (GRs) using climate tendency rate, wavelet analysis, and GR for diagnosis. Results suggest that the inter-annual number of thunderstorm days (TSDs) exhibits a decreasing trend in this province. The trend is displayed mainly in the decreasing TSD number in summer and autumn except in spring, when the variation is not significant in the study period. In this province, the TSD number declines by ~2 days per 10 years. On an inter-annual basis, the pronounced positive departures of the number take place chiefly in the early 1960s, the late 1960s to the early-mid-1970s, the late 1980s, and the late 1990s compared with the negative anomalies dominant in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s, the mid-to-late-1990s, and the late 1990s to 2007. There are vast differences in the initial and ending days at diverse GRs in different areas of the province. At 50% GR, the earliest (last) days occur from mid-March to early April (early to late September) while at 80% GR, the initial (last) days are from late March to early May (early to late October). For the distribution of periods, the periods >8–10 years are relatively stable for the entire province. Based on 1951–2007 period analysis, the region north (south) of the Huaihe River experiences TSDs less (more) than normal days in recent years.  相似文献   

基于雷达回波最大重叠率的一种临近降水预报方法          下载免费PDF全文

李建通  高守亭  郭林 《大气科学》2011,35(3):519-530

基于天气雷达的临近降水预报是雷达短时预报业务系统的重要组成部分,本文在回顾雷达临近降水预报技术发展的基础上,充分考虑新一代天气雷达高时间、空间分辨率的优点,提出两个相邻时刻雷达回波具有最大重叠率的移向、移速是与降水系统整体的移向、移速密切相关的论点,再用此移向、移速对当前雷达回波进行平移,最后采用九点平均的回波生消模型...  相似文献   

Implementation of a second‐order paraxial boundary condition for a water‐saturated layered half‐space in plane strain     

John L. Tassoulas 《地震工程与结构动力学》2011,40(5):531-550

A half‐space finite element and a transmitting boundary are developed for a water‐saturated layered half‐space using a paraxial boundary condition. The exact dynamic stiffness of a half‐space in plane strain is derived and a second‐order paraxial approximation of the stiffness is obtained. A half‐space finite element and a transmitting boundary are then formulated. The development is verified by comparison of the dynamic stiffness of impermeable and permeable rigid strip foundations with other published results. The advantage of using the paraxial boundary condition in comparison with the rigid boundary condition is examined. It is shown that the paraxial boundary condition offers significant gain and the resulting half‐space finite element and transmitting boundary can represent the effects of a water‐saturated layered half‐space with good accuracy and efficiency. In addition, the numerical method described herein maintains the strengths and advantages of the finite element method and can be easily applied to demanding problems of soil–structure interaction in a water‐saturated layered half‐space. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

VTI介质中准P波方程叠前逆时深度偏移   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

韩令贺  何兵寿  张会星 《地震学报》2011,33(2):209-218

根据具有垂直对称轴的横向各向同性（VTI）介质中的一阶准P波方程,导出了该方程在交错网格中逆时延拓的高阶有限差分格式,给出了其稳定性条件,采用完全匹配层吸收边界条件解决边界反射问题,分别应用下行波最大能量法和归一化互相关成像条件, 实现了VTI介质中准P波方程的叠前逆时深度偏移．各向异性Marmousi模型的试算结果表明,VTI介质准P波方程叠前逆时深度偏移算法不受地下构造倾角和介质横向速度变化的限制,对复杂模型具有良好的成像能力;应用归一化互相关成像条件能得到更好的成像效果．对比该模型的各向异性和各向同性逆时偏移剖面表明,在各向异性地区采集的纵波数据用各向异性偏移算法理论上能得到更好的成像结果．   相似文献   

山东Ⅱ、Ⅲ类场地地震动峰值加速度放大效应分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刁颋 《中国地震》2011,27(1):92-98

利用山东地区实测的Ⅱ类场地358个钻孔和Ⅲ类场地140个钻孔的地震动峰值加速度,计算了各个钻孔不同超越概率的土层地震动峰值加速度的放大系数ks,结果表明:(1)同类场地土层放大系数ks值总体符合正态分布,既有相对集中性,也有离散性;(2)随着基岩面输入地震动强度的增大,ks值降低,且Ⅲ类场地ks值降低较Ⅱ类的更为明显;(3)Ⅱ类场地随着基岩输入面埋深的增加,ks值呈增加趋势,约达20m深后基本趋于稳定,而Ⅲ类场地基岩输入面埋深的增加对ks值的影响不甚显著;(4)Ⅱ类场地50年超越概率10％的平均ks值(1.47)略高于《中国地震动参数区划图》使用的全国平均ks值.本文尝试讨论了山东地区Ⅱ、Ⅲ类场地不同强度基岩峰值加速度输入的ks调整值.  相似文献   

汶川8．0级特大地震汉源县震害特点与烈度异常成因探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

雷东宁  蔡永建  李恒  陈蜀俊 《四川地震》2011,(4):35-39

本文在汉源县地震灾害调查的基础上,通过收集前人在该区已取得的成果资料,采用综合分析、类比等方法,对汉源县地震烈度异常区震害及造成异常的原因进行了分析探讨。汉源县建筑物破坏形式以水平地震作用造成的“X”型剪切破坏为主,竖向地震造成的破坏较少。地震波传播路径、场地土层条件和地形地貌条件三者的耦合是造成汉源县烈度异常的主要原因,其中场地土层中占优势厚度的砾石层是造成场地地震波放大的主要内因。本文取得的初步结论为更加深入地科学研究本区地震烈度异常的原因提供了新思路。  相似文献   

基于图像退化模型的天气现象识别     

宋晓建  杨玲 《成都信息工程学院学报》2011,(4):132-136

在不同的天气条件下,由于气溶胶对光波的散射作用,通过成像系统获得的图像都会有一定程度的退化。利用图像的退化模型可以获取与天气现象相关的参量,从而达到识别天气的目的。对不同天气条件下得到的同一场景图进行研究,运用多垂线检测法,检测出不同天气条件下直线模糊边缘上的灰度值,采用signloid函数拟合出刃边函数,进而求出线扩散函数。通过分析线扩散函数的变化规律,总结出其与天气现象之间的紧密联系。测试结果表明,应用该方法对于晴天、薄雾、雨、霾、沙尘暴等天气现象具有一定的判别效果。  相似文献   

苍山县农村宅基地管理中存在的问题及对策          下载免费PDF全文

刘敬涛  主国兴 《山东国土资源》2011,27(3):57-59

农村宅基地管理工作中,非法占地、非法转让土地、超面积占地、一户多宅、擅自改变宅基地用途和划新不丢旧等各种违法行为层出不穷,造成了农村宅基地管理混乱的局面。因此,必须加强宣传,做好规划、编制,完善相关法律、法规及执法监察等工作。  相似文献